Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 1.991154 2.107339 2.229344 2.367462 2.520029 2.684043 2.874546
2025-09-28 1.790046 1.946514 2.118380 2.322710 2.561080 2.833004 3.170560
2025-10-05 1.703253 1.888421 2.098581 2.357802 2.673331 3.050982 3.546943
2025-10-12 1.640721 1.847476 2.088422 2.394813 2.781495 3.264284 3.931848
2025-10-19 1.586736 1.809886 2.075789 2.422887 2.875114 3.461770 4.313175
2025-10-26 1.522851 1.754721 2.035930 2.410840 2.912278 3.584125 4.601180
2025-11-02 1.466996 1.705353 1.998934 2.397762 2.943998 3.698071 4.886415
2025-11-09 1.411317 1.652778 1.954072 2.369978 2.951411 3.775504 5.122352
2025-11-16 1.360134 1.603168 1.909918 2.339427 2.951098 3.839288 5.341527
2025-11-23 1.326768 1.574669 1.891430 2.341858 2.996510 3.973207 5.691464
2025-11-30 1.302875 1.557144 1.886124 2.361416 3.067030 4.150519 6.140571
2025-12-07 1.260915 1.514017 1.844236 2.326464 3.052845 4.190788 6.346108
2025-12-14 1.220100 1.471556 1.802274 2.290280 3.035892 4.227418 6.555698
2025-12-21 1.179722 1.428362 1.757670 2.248041 3.006733 4.240927 6.722256
2025-12-28 1.167621 1.422733 1.764542 2.281314 3.097982 4.467664 7.363170
2026-01-04 1.156894 1.418371 1.772670 2.316386 3.194001 4.712400 8.097037
2026-01-11 1.144121 1.410591 1.775384 2.342977 3.277449 4.942997 8.855873
2026-01-18 1.120555 1.386973 1.754344 2.331568 3.295505 5.051296 9.342884
2026-01-25 1.098004 1.364060 1.733428 2.319180 3.310702 5.155073 9.844156
2026-02-01 1.072589 1.336382 1.704595 2.292854 3.299590 5.204752 10.211119
2026-02-08 1.047660 1.308738 1.674934 2.263894 3.281911 5.239105 10.544290
2026-02-15 1.032643 1.294781 1.665015 2.266199 3.320398 5.394595 11.285460
2026-02-22 1.022742 1.287817 1.665176 2.284739 3.389539 5.623774 12.343631